Today / VFK vs IF Karlstad B

VFK vs IF Karlstad B Prediction

Thursday, May 14, 2026

VFK

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IF Karlstad B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 29.3% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.4% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VFK1.4

IF Karlstad B1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VFK · PPG 2.00

IF KARLSTAD B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

VFK (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IF Karlstad B (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

VFK face IF Karlstad B on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VFK a 45% chance, the draw 29% and IF Karlstad B 26%, so VFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for VFK and 1.0 for IF Karlstad B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VFK are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for IF Karlstad B. This match finished 3-2.

VFK vs IF Karlstad B Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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