Today / Egypt - Premier League / Al Ittihad vs El Geish

Al Ittihad vs El Geish Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 10 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 17:00

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

El Geish

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-114.6%0-24.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.1%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.1%2-15.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 38.8% 2.58 -9.7%

Draw 42.4% 36.8% 2.72 +15.3%

Away win 22.6% 33.6% 2.98 -19.6%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Over 3.5 6.1% 16.0% 6.25 -37.1%

BTTS 45.9% 44.4% 2.25 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0✓ 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittihad0.8

El Geish0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.31

EL GEISH · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittihad (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -9.7%

Draw 42.4%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +15.3%

El Geish (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittihad face El Geish in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittihad a 35% chance, the draw 42% and El Geish 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Al Ittihad and 0.6 for El Geish (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittihad are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.87 for El Geish. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Ittihad vs El Geish Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions