Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Shakhtar vs Obolon

Shakhtar vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 28 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 15:00

Shakhtar

PPG 2.62 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Obolon

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.7%1-15.7%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.5%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-18.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 85.5% 1.17 -17.4%

Draw 20.9% 18.5% 5.40 +7.7%

Away win 8.5% 6.3% 16.00 +21.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

BTTS 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.1%

H 71% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 4–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar2.7

Obolon0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.62

OBOLON · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.62), Away AVERAGE (1.08) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +7.7%

Obolon (A) 8.5%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar face Obolon in Ukraine - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Obolon 9%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Shakhtar and 0.5 for Obolon (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.08 for Obolon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Shakhtar vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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