Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Shakhtar vs Obolon

Shakhtar vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 15:00

Shakhtar

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Obolon

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

Home 81% chance

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.7%1-15.7%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.5%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-18.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 85.5% 1.17 -17.4%

Draw 20.9% 18.5% 5.40 +7.7%

Away win 8.5% 6.3% 16.00 +21.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 43.5% 2.30 -7.3%

BTTS 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.1%

H 71% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 4–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar2.7

Obolon0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.62

OBOLON · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.62), Away AVERAGE (1.08) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +7.7%

Obolon (A) 8.5%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar face Obolon in Ukraine - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Obolon 9%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Shakhtar and 0.5 for Obolon (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.08 for Obolon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Shakhtar vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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