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LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 12:30

LNZ Cherkasy

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SK Poltava

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Home 82% chance

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-16.9%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.3%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-16.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 87.7% 1.14 -22.5%

Draw 22.8% 17.2% 5.80 +19.3%

Away win 9.2% 5.3% 19.00 +44.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Over 3.5 30.4% 44.4% 2.25 -31.6%

BTTS 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.3%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 3–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LNZ Cherkasy2.3

SK Poltava0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LNZ CHERKASY · PPG 1.79

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.79), Away POOR (0.46) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

LNZ Cherkasy (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -22.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +19.3%

SK Poltava (A) 9.2%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +44.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

LNZ Cherkasy face SK Poltava in Ukraine - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 68% chance, the draw 23% and SK Poltava 9%, so LNZ Cherkasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.5 for SK Poltava (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.46 for SK Poltava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.9%. This match finished 2-0.

LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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