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Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 28 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 12:30

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.77 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.9%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.6%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-18.9%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 73.5% 1.36 -34.4%

Draw 27.8% 23.8% 4.20 +10.1%

Away win 24.0% 12.5% 8.00 +55.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Over 3.5 20.2% 33.9% 2.95 -24.3%

BTTS 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Kyiv1.4

Kolos Kovalivka0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.77

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.77), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Kyiv (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -34.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.1%

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 24.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +55.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Kyiv face Kolos Kovalivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Kolos Kovalivka 24%, so Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.9 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.69 for Kolos Kovalivka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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