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UCV vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 3 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 23:30

UCV

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

D. La Guaira

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-113.4%0-27.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.9%2-16.7%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

Draw 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away win 34.9% 37.7% 2.65 -7.5%

Over 2.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Over 3.5 16.9% 23.8% 4.20 -17.4%

BTTS 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV1.0

D. La Guaira1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 2.00

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.7%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

D. La Guaira (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face D. La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 35% chance, the draw 30% and D. La Guaira 35%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for UCV and 1.1 for D. La Guaira (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for D. La Guaira. This match finished 1-1.

UCV vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions