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D. Tachira vs Metropolitanos Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 3 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 22:00

D. Tachira

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Metropolitanos

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-114.5%0-26.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-16.2%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 57.8% 1.73 -37.4%

Draw 33.1% 29.9% 3.35 +10.9%

Away win 30.6% 21.7% 4.60 +40.8%

Over 2.5 34.7% 48.8% 2.05 -28.9%

Over 3.5 11.3% 27.4% 3.65 -35.3%

BTTS 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 14.5%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Tachira0.9

Metropolitanos0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

D. TACHIRA · PPG 2.00

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

D. Tachira (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -37.4%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +10.9%

Metropolitanos (A) 30.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +40.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Tachira face Metropolitanos in Venezuela - Primera División on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Tachira a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Metropolitanos 31%, so D. Tachira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for D. Tachira and 0.9 for Metropolitanos (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Tachira are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Metropolitanos. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 1-1.

D. Tachira vs Metropolitanos Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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