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Wadi Degla vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 10 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 17:00

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ismaily

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.8%0-19.0%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.2%1-110.0%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.4%2-15.5%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.9%3-12.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.9% 1.67 -17.0%

Draw 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

Away win 18.9% 17.9% 5.60 +3.5%

Over 2.5 31.5% 38.5% 2.60 -18.1%

Over 3.5 6.8% 19.0% 5.25 -38.6%

BTTS 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 50% / xG 1.1-0.4 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.8%

#2 1–0 24.2%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wadi Degla1.1

Ismaily0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.5% · O3.5 PROB 6.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.53

ISMAILY · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Wadi Degla (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.0%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.2%

Ismaily (A) 18.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wadi Degla face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wadi Degla a 50% chance, the draw 31% and Ismaily 19%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wadi Degla and 0.4 for Ismaily (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wadi Degla are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.65 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Wadi Degla vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions