Today / DOVO vs Sparta Nijkerk

DOVO vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction

Group A - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

DOVO

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.0%0-26.5%0-34.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.3%1-19.9%1-29.2%1-35.7%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.1%2-26.6%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.1%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 47.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.8% — — —

Over 3.5 41.7% — — —

BTTS 64.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.1%

A 48% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1✓ 7.1%

#4 0–1 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DOVO1.4

Sparta Nijkerk1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DOVO · PPG 1.86

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

DOVO (H) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta Nijkerk (A) 47.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DOVO face Sparta Nijkerk on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DOVO a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta Nijkerk 48%, so Sparta Nijkerk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for DOVO and 1.9 for Sparta Nijkerk (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DOVO are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.64 for Sparta Nijkerk. This match finished 2-1.

DOVO vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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