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Metalist 1925 vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 28 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 15:00

Metalist 1925

PPG 1.85 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.5%0-113.2%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-16.1%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 50.0% 2.00 -18.0%

Draw 34.1% 32.3% 3.10 +5.7%

Away win 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Over 2.5 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

Over 3.5 8.4% 25.3% 3.95 -40.1%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.5%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalist 19251.0

Karpaty Lviv0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 8.4%

Form & verdict PPG

METALIST 1925 · PPG 1.85

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.85), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Metalist 1925 (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.0%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.7%

Karpaty Lviv (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalist 1925 face Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalist 1925 a 41% chance, the draw 34% and Karpaty Lviv 25%, so Metalist 1925 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Metalist 1925 and 0.7 for Karpaty Lviv (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalist 1925 are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.57 for Karpaty Lviv. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Metalist 1925 vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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