Today / Serbia - Prva Liga / Borac 1926 vs Trajal Krusevac

Borac 1926 vs Trajal Krusevac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Borac 1926

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Trajal Krusevac

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-16.4%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.8%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 72.5% 1.38 -31.4%

Draw 28.5% 25.6% 3.90 +11.2%

Away win 21.8% 13.3% 7.50 +63.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 21.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borac 19261.7

Trajal Krusevac0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BORAC 1926 · PPG 1.56

TRAJAL KRUSEVAC · PPG 0.31

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Borac 1926 (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -31.4%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +11.2%

Trajal Krusevac (A) 21.8%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +63.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borac 1926 face Trajal Krusevac in Serbia - Prva Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borac 1926 a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Trajal Krusevac 22%, so Borac 1926 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Borac 1926 and 0.7 for Trajal Krusevac (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borac 1926 are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.31 for Trajal Krusevac. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Borac 1926 vs Trajal Krusevac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Serbia - Prva Liga Predictions