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El Gouna vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 10 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 14:00

El Gouna

PPG 1.15 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

K. Ismailia

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-113.4%0-24.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.6%2-16.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 43.9% 2.28 -9.9%

Draw 34.8% 34.2% 2.92 +1.6%

Away win 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Over 2.5 34.7% 40.8% 2.45 -15.0%

Over 3.5 8.8% 21.1% 4.75 -34.9%

BTTS 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1✓ 13.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Gouna1.0

K. Ismailia0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GOUNA · PPG 1.15

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

El Gouna (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -9.9%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +1.6%

K. Ismailia (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Gouna face K. Ismailia in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna a 40% chance, the draw 35% and K. Ismailia 26%, so El Gouna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Gouna and 0.7 for K. Ismailia (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.75 for K. Ismailia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 0-1.

El Gouna vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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