Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Episentr vs Polessya

Episentr vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 12:30

Episentr

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Polessya

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Away 70% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-113.5%0-212.5%0-37.7%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.6%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.1%2-14.0%2-23.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 12.1% 8.25 +2.4%

Draw 25.8% 25.0% 4.00 +1.9%

Away win 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

BTTS 51.2% 46.5% 2.15 +10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.2%

A 62% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Episentr0.8

Polessya1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EPISENTR · PPG 0.92

POLESSYA · PPG 2.31

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

70%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Episentr (H) 12.6%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +2.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.9%

Polessya (A) 61.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Episentr face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Episentr a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Polessya 62%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Episentr and 1.9 for Polessya (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Episentr are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 2.31 for Polessya. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Episentr vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ukraine - Premier League Predictions