Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Episentr vs Polessya

Episentr vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 28 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 12:30

Episentr

PPG 0.92 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Polessya

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-113.5%0-212.5%0-37.7%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.6%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.1%2-14.0%2-23.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 12.1% 8.25 +2.4%

Draw 25.8% 25.0% 4.00 +1.9%

Away win 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

BTTS 51.2% 46.5% 2.15 +10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.2%

A 62% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Episentr0.8

Polessya1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EPISENTR · PPG 0.92

POLESSYA · PPG 2.31

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Episentr (H) 12.6%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +2.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.9%

Polessya (A) 61.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Episentr face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Episentr a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Polessya 62%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Episentr and 1.9 for Polessya (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Episentr are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 2.31 for Polessya. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Episentr vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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