Today / Jong Almere C. vs Jong Sparta

Jong Almere C. vs Jong Sparta Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Jong Almere C.

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong Sparta

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.3%0-21.7%0-31.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-01.3%1-13.5%1-24.6%1-34.0%1-4+4.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.2%2-35.3%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.6%3-14.2%3-25.5%3-34.8%3-4+5.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-15.5%4+-27.1%4+-36.2%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% — — —

Draw 17.9% — — —

Away win 39.6% — — —

Over 2.5 89.8% — — —

Over 3.5 77.4% — — —

BTTS 86.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob86.3%

H 42% / xG 2.7-2.6 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 86%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 3–2 5.5%

#3 2–3 5.3%

#4 3–3 4.8%

#5 2–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Almere C.2.7

Jong Sparta2.6

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.8% · O3.5 PROB 77.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG ALMERE C. · PPG 1.64

JONG SPARTA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Almere C. (H) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jong Sparta (A) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Almere C. face Jong Sparta on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Almere C. a 42% chance, the draw 18% and Jong Sparta 40%, so Jong Almere C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Jong Almere C. and 2.6 for Jong Sparta (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 86% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Almere C. are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Jong Sparta. This match finished 3-0.

Jong Almere C. vs Jong Sparta Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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