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Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:00

Oleksandria

PPG 0.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Away 53% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-112.5%0-211.6%0-37.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.4%2-14.4%2-24.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.7% 29.4% 3.40 -30.0%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

BTTS 52.1% 57.8% 1.73 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.1%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.6%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oleksandria0.8

Zorya Luhansk1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.54

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.23

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

53%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.23) vs Home POOR (0.54)

Win probability 1X2

Oleksandria (H) 14.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -30.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 59.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oleksandria face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oleksandria a 15% chance, the draw 26% and Zorya Luhansk 60%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Oleksandria and 1.9 for Zorya Luhansk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oleksandria are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 1.23 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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