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Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 28 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:00

Oleksandria

PPG 0.54 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-112.5%0-211.6%0-37.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.4%2-14.4%2-24.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.7% 29.4% 3.40 -30.0%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

BTTS 52.1% 57.8% 1.73 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.1%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.6%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oleksandria0.8

Zorya Luhansk1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.54

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.23

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.23) vs Home POOR (0.54)

Win probability 1X2

Oleksandria (H) 14.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -30.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 59.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oleksandria face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oleksandria a 15% chance, the draw 26% and Zorya Luhansk 60%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Oleksandria and 1.9 for Zorya Luhansk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oleksandria are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 1.23 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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