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Zalaegerszegi vs Kazincbarcika Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:15

Zalaegerszegi

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kazincbarcika

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-17.8%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.4%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-17.8%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.6% 70.9% 1.41 +3.8%

Draw 16.4% 25.6% 3.90 -36.0%

Away win 10.0% 12.5% 8.00 -20.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 59.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Over 3.5 38.6% 38.5% 2.60 +0.4%

BTTS 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.3%

H 74% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 3–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalaegerszegi2.4

Kazincbarcika0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALAEGERSZEGI · PPG 1.67

KAZINCBARCIKA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Zalaegerszegi (H) 73.6%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV +3.8%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -36.0%

Kazincbarcika (A) 10.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalaegerszegi face Kazincbarcika in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalaegerszegi a 74% chance, the draw 16% and Kazincbarcika 10%, so Zalaegerszegi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Zalaegerszegi and 0.8 for Kazincbarcika (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalaegerszegi are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.71 for Kazincbarcika. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Zalaegerszegi vs Kazincbarcika Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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