Today / Smederevo vs Borac 1926

Smederevo vs Borac 1926 Prediction

Monday, May 11, 2026

Smederevo

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Borac 1926

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.0%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.6%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-18.9%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 20.8% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smederevo1.4

Borac 19260.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDEREVO · PPG 1.78

BORAC 1926 · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Smederevo (H) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Borac 1926 (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smederevo face Borac 1926 on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smederevo a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Borac 1926 24%, so Smederevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Smederevo and 0.9 for Borac 1926 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smederevo are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.18 for Borac 1926. This match finished 1-1.

Smederevo vs Borac 1926 Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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