Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / M. Victory B vs Manningham Utd

M. Victory B vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 10:30

M. Victory B

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Manningham Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.5%0-31.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-02.8%1-15.8%1-25.9%1-34.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.7%3-15.5%3-25.6%3-33.8%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.8%4+-25.9%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 51.3% 1.95 -12.4%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

Over 2.5 69.8% 69.4% 1.44 +0.5%

Over 3.5 64.7% 48.3% 2.07 +33.9%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 45% / xG 2.4-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Victory B2.4

Manningham Utd2.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

M. VICTORY B · PPG 2.20

MANNINGHAM UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=44.9%

Win probability 1X2

M. Victory B (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Manningham Utd (A) 32.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Victory B face Manningham Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Victory B a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Manningham Utd 33%, so M. Victory B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for M. Victory B and 2.0 for Manningham Utd (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Victory B are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Manningham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 4-0.

M. Victory B vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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