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East Bengal vs Punjab Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 14:00

East Bengal

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Punjab

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 56.5% 1.77 -9.0%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Over 2.5 56.9% 55.6% 1.80 +2.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.8%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Bengal1.8

Punjab1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST BENGAL · PPG 1.88

PUNJAB · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

East Bengal (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -9.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Punjab (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Bengal face Punjab in India - Indian Super League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Bengal a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Punjab 24%, so East Bengal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for East Bengal and 1.0 for Punjab (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Bengal are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.40 for Punjab. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

East Bengal vs Punjab Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions