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Metalist U19 vs Karpaty U19 Prediction— Ukraine - U19 League

Regular Season - 28 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 10:00

Metalist U19

PPG 1.62 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karpaty U19

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.3%0-25.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.5%1-110.3%1-28.2%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.6%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.8%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 26.0% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.4% — — —

BTTS 59.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.4%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalist U191.6

Karpaty U191.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

METALIST U19 · PPG 1.62

KARPATY U19 · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Metalist U19 (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Karpaty U19 (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalist U19 face Karpaty U19 in Ukraine - U19 League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalist U19 a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Karpaty U19 36%, so Metalist U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Metalist U19 and 1.6 for Karpaty U19 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalist U19 are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.57 for Karpaty U19. This match finished 3-2.

Metalist U19 vs Karpaty U19 Prediction— Ukraine - U19 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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