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Graficar vs Dubocica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 36 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 15:00

Graficar

PPG 1.39 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Dubocica

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.5%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.6% — — —

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 48.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Graficar1.3

Dubocica0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAFICAR · PPG 1.39

DUBOCICA · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.61)

Win probability 1X2

Graficar (H) 48.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dubocica (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Graficar face Dubocica in Serbia - Prva Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Graficar a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Dubocica 23%, so Graficar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Graficar and 0.8 for Dubocica (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Graficar are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.61 for Dubocica. This match finished 3-1.

Graficar vs Dubocica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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