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Loznica vs Macva Sabac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Loznica

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Macva Sabac

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-115.5%0-25.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.5%1-112.7%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-15.2%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 40.0% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 7.2% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 15.5%

#5 2–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loznica0.8

Macva Sabac0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOZNICA · PPG 2.25

MACVA SABAC · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=35.1%

Win probability 1X2

Loznica (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Macva Sabac (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Loznica face Macva Sabac in Serbia - Prva Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loznica a 35% chance, the draw 40% and Macva Sabac 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Loznica and 0.7 for Macva Sabac (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loznica are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.31 for Macva Sabac. This match finished 2-0.

Loznica vs Macva Sabac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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