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Hegelmann B vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 15:00

Hegelmann B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TransINVEST Vil

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.4%0-24.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.6%1-19.9%1-27.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.7%3-15.5%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 47.6% 2.10 -3.2%

Draw 26.1% 27.8% 3.60 -3.6%

Away win 27.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Over 3.5 42.4% 43.5% 2.30 -2.5%

BTTS 59.5% 69.0% 1.45 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2✓ 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann B1.8

TransINVEST Vil1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN B · PPG 1.00

TRANSINVEST VIL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann B (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.6%

TransINVEST Vil (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann B face TransINVEST Vil in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann B a 46% chance, the draw 26% and TransINVEST Vil 28%, so Hegelmann B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hegelmann B and 1.5 for TransINVEST Vil (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for TransINVEST Vil. This match finished 1-2.

Hegelmann B vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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