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Manta vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 23:10

Manta

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Macara

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.7%0-122.8%0-210.5%0-33.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.7%1-110.8%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.8%2-12.6%2-21.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.6% 36.0% 2.78 -27.3%

Draw 40.9% 32.8% 3.05 +24.7%

Away win 39.6% 38.5% 2.60 +3.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 40.8% 2.45 -22.1%

Over 3.5 5.4% 21.1% 4.75 -44.6%

BTTS 41.8% 50.0% 2.00 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.8%

A 40% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.7%

#2 0–1✓ 22.8%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–0 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.5

Macara0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.60

MACARA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.60) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 19.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -27.3%

Draw 40.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +24.7%

Macara (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 20% chance, the draw 41% and Macara 40%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Manta and 0.9 for Macara (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Manta vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions