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Emelec vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:30

Emelec

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Libertad

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-113.7%0-27.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.6%2-16.7%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 55.6% 1.80 -36.6%

Draw 29.4% 29.0% 3.45 +0.9%

Away win 35.4% 22.7% 4.40 +55.8%

Over 2.5 40.2% 45.5% 2.20 -11.6%

Over 3.5 14.3% 23.8% 4.20 -24.0%

BTTS 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.0

Libertad1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.67

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=35.2%

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 35.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -36.6%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.9%

Libertad (A) 35.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +55.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Libertad 35%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Emelec and 1.0 for Libertad (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Emelec vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions