Today / Montevideo City vs Progreso

Montevideo City vs Progreso Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Montevideo City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Progreso

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.2%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.8%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.5% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montevideo City1.6

Progreso0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEVIDEO CITY · PPG 1.67

PROGRESO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Montevideo City (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Progreso (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montevideo City face Progreso on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montevideo City a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Progreso 23%, so Montevideo City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Montevideo City and 0.7 for Progreso (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montevideo City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Progreso. This match finished 2-1.

Montevideo City vs Progreso Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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