Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Western Utd B vs North Geelong

Western Utd B vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 04:00

Western Utd B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

North Geelong

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.8%0-22.0%0-31.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-02.0%1-14.6%1-25.2%1-33.9%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.6%2-15.9%2-26.7%2-35.1%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.2%3-15.1%3-25.8%3-34.4%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-16.1%4+-26.9%4+-35.2%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 33.5% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 71.3% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob66.7%

H 44% / xG 2.6-2.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 5.9%

#3 3–2✓ 5.8%

#4 1–1 4.6%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Utd B2.6

North Geelong2.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 71.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 1.50

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Western Utd B (H) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong (A) 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Utd B face North Geelong in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Utd B a 44% chance, the draw 22% and North Geelong 34%, so Western Utd B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Western Utd B and 2.3 for North Geelong (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Utd B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for North Geelong. This match finished 3-2.

Western Utd B vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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