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Blacktown City vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S George Saints

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.4%0-25.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.4%1-112.6%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-18.5%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 42.6% 2.35 -11.2%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

Over 2.5 48.3% 65.4% 1.53 -26.1%

Over 3.5 25.7% 43.5% 2.30 -24.5%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 2–1✓ 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.3

S George Saints1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.67

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

S George Saints (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face S George Saints in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 38% chance, the draw 27% and S George Saints 35%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Blacktown City and 1.2 for S George Saints (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for S George Saints. This match finished 2-1.

Blacktown City vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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