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Australia - New South Wales NPL logo Australia flag Australia - New South Wales NPL Regular Season - 14 Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre· Sydney Sunday, May 10, 2026 05:00
Rockdale logo Rockdale PPG 1.71
3-0 MISS
Sydney FC B logo Sydney FC B PPG 1.40
Away· +50.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.2%
Odds: 1.67 EV: -36.2%
Draw 25.9%
Odds: 3.80 EV: -0.9%
Away 35.9%
Odds: 4.20 EV: +50.8%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.40 -15.3%
Over 3.5 43.3% Odds: 2.00 -13.4%
BTTS 59.2% Odds: 1.40 -17.1%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-2
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Rockdale
1.71
Sydney FC B
1.65

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -15.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+50.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 46%
Score Hit 37%
ROI 17.4%
Bet Hit 71% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

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