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Rockdale vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.8%0-24.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.9%1-19.8%1-28.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.8%3-23.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 59.9% 1.67 -36.2%

Draw 25.9% 26.3% 3.80 -0.9%

Away win 35.9% 23.8% 4.20 +50.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 71.4% 1.40 -15.3%

Over 3.5 43.3% 50.0% 2.00 -13.4%

BTTS 59.2% 71.4% 1.40 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.2%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale1.7

Sydney FC B1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.71

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale (H) 38.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -36.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.9%

Sydney FC B (A) 35.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +50.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale face Sydney FC B in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney FC B 36%, so Rockdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rockdale and 1.7 for Sydney FC B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.40 for Sydney FC B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Rockdale vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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