Today / CA Guemes vs Quilmes

CA Guemes vs Quilmes Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

CA Guemes

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Quilmes

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-117.1%0-29.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.2%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.7%2-15.0%2-22.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.3%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% — — —

Draw 34.0% — — —

Away win 39.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 11.5% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

A 39% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 0–1 17.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Guemes0.8

Quilmes1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CA GUEMES · PPG 0.83

QUILMES · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

CA Guemes (H) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quilmes (A) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face Quilmes on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 27% chance, the draw 34% and Quilmes 39%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for CA Guemes and 1.1 for Quilmes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Quilmes. This match finished 2-1.

CA Guemes vs Quilmes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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