Today / Paris SG vs Brest

Paris SG vs Brest Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Paris SG

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Brest

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.6%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-16.8%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-18.9%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-19.9%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 45.3% — — —

BTTS 53.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.5%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris SG2.6

Brest0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS SG · PPG 2.38

BREST · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Win probability 1X2

Paris SG (H) 63.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brest (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris SG face Brest on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris SG a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Brest 15%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Paris SG and 0.8 for Brest (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris SG are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.81 for Brest. This match finished 1-2.

Paris SG vs Brest Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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