Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / Uthai Thani vs Rayong

Uthai Thani vs Rayong Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Uthai Thani

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rayong

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.8%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.5%1-18.5%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.0%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 50.0% 2.00 +16.4%

Draw 20.0% 31.3% 3.20 -36.0%

Away win 21.8% 30.8% 3.25 -29.1%

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 65.2% 60.6% 1.65 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.2%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uthai Thani2.2

Rayong1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UTHAI THANI · PPG 1.33

RAYONG · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Uthai Thani (H) 58.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +16.4%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -36.0%

Rayong (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uthai Thani face Rayong in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uthai Thani a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Rayong 22%, so Uthai Thani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Uthai Thani and 1.3 for Rayong (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uthai Thani are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.77 for Rayong. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Uthai Thani vs Rayong Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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