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Arsenal Sarandi vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:30

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Real Pilar

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-110.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 48.8% 2.05 +0.7%

Draw 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.8%

Away win 21.9% 28.2% 3.55 -13.4%

Over 2.5 35.1% 37.0% 2.70 -5.2%

Over 3.5 10.9% 18.2% 5.50 -24.0%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi1.2

Real Pilar0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.17

REAL PILAR · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +0.7%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.8%

Real Pilar (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Real Pilar 22%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.6 for Real Pilar (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.33 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Arsenal Sarandi vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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