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A. Quilmes vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:30

A. Quilmes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Dock Sud

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-114.6%0-25.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.5%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Draw 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

Away win 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 37.0% 2.70 -5.2%

Over 3.5 8.1% 20.0% 5.00 -35.7%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Quilmes0.9

Dock Sud0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. QUILMES · PPG 1.00

DOCK SUD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

A. Quilmes (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.4%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.1%

Dock Sud (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face Dock Sud in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Dock Sud 26%, so A. Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for A. Quilmes and 0.7 for Dock Sud (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Dock Sud. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-2.

A. Quilmes vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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