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Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-120.4%0-29.8%0-33.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.7%2-13.6%2-21.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

Draw 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

Away win 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Over 3.5 7.3% 24.7% 4.05 -42.3%

BTTS 45.9% 53.5% 1.87 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.1%

#2 0–1✓ 20.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti0.6

Gareji Sagarejo1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.40

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.3%

Gareji Sagarejo (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Gareji Sagarejo in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 24% chance, the draw 35% and Gareji Sagarejo 42%, so Gareji Sagarejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.0 for Gareji Sagarejo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Gareji Sagarejo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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