Today / Montenegro - First League / Mornar Bar vs Decic

Mornar Bar vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Mornar Bar

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Decic

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+36.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.0%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-17.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-17.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.6% 54.1% 1.85 +36.2%

Draw 16.8% 34.5% 2.90 -51.3%

Away win 9.6% 25.0% 4.00 -61.6%

Over 2.5 57.6% — — —

Over 3.5 35.1% — — —

BTTS 45.0% 48.8% 2.05 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.0%

H 74% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0✓ 11.5%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar Bar2.3

Decic0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR BAR · PPG 2.21

DECIC · PPG 1.36

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.21), Away AVERAGE (1.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mornar Bar (H) 73.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +36.2%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -51.3%

Decic (A) 9.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -61.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar Bar face Decic in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar Bar a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Decic 10%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Mornar Bar and 0.7 for Decic (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar Bar are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.36 for Decic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Mornar Bar vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Montenegro - First League Predictions