Today / S. Subotica vs Napredak

S. Subotica vs Napredak Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

S. Subotica

PPG 0.63 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Napredak

PPG 0.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.1%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.9%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.1% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Subotica1.8

Napredak1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SUBOTICA · PPG 0.63

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.63) > Away POOR (0.24)

Win probability 1X2

S. Subotica (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Napredak (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Subotica face Napredak on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Subotica a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Napredak 25%, so S. Subotica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for S. Subotica and 1.1 for Napredak (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Subotica are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.24 for Napredak. This match finished 0-3.

S. Subotica vs Napredak Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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