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Radnicki Nis vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Radnicki Nis

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mladost Lucani

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.0%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.2%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

Draw 26.1% 35.2% 2.84 -15.5%

Away win 24.9% 21.3% 4.70 +10.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.4% 27.8% 3.60 -13.8%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radnicki Nis1.5

Mladost Lucani0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 1.69

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

Radnicki Nis (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -15.5%

Mladost Lucani (A) 24.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radnicki Nis face Mladost Lucani in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radnicki Nis a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Mladost Lucani 25%, so Radnicki Nis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Radnicki Nis and 0.8 for Mladost Lucani (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radnicki Nis are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.88 for Mladost Lucani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Radnicki Nis vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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