Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Backa Topola vs Javor Ivanjica

Backa Topola vs Javor Ivanjica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Backa Topola

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Javor Ivanjica

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.3%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 61.7% 1.62 -29.8%

Draw 30.0% 27.4% 3.65 +9.5%

Away win 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 52.6% 1.90 -13.0%

Over 3.5 16.2% 30.8% 3.25 -28.4%

BTTS 50.4% 54.6% 1.83 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Backa Topola1.2

Javor Ivanjica0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.24

JAVOR IVANJICA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.24) > Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Backa Topola (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -29.8%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +9.5%

Javor Ivanjica (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Backa Topola face Javor Ivanjica in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Backa Topola a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Javor Ivanjica 27%, so Backa Topola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Backa Topola and 0.9 for Javor Ivanjica (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Backa Topola are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.81 for Javor Ivanjica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 6-1.

Backa Topola vs Javor Ivanjica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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