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Mornar Bar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Mornar Bar

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bokelj

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Home 75% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.8%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 85.5% 1.17 -40.3%

Draw 26.4% 18.2% 5.50 +27.1%

Away win 22.6% 5.9% 17.00 +170.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 20.0% 31.3% 3.20 -21.6%

BTTS 48.2% 28.6% 3.50 +68.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -58.2%

Bet Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0✓ 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar Bar1.6

Bokelj0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR BAR · PPG 2.31

BOKELJ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

75%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Mornar Bar (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -40.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +27.1%

Bokelj (A) 22.6%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +170.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar Bar face Bokelj in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar Bar a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bokelj 23%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mornar Bar and 0.7 for Bokelj (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar Bar are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.00 for Bokelj. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +170.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Mornar Bar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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