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Mornar Bar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Mornar Bar

PPG 2.31 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bokelj

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.8%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 85.5% 1.17 -40.3%

Draw 26.4% 18.2% 5.50 +27.1%

Away win 22.6% 5.9% 17.00 +170.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 20.0% 31.3% 3.20 -21.6%

BTTS 48.2% 28.6% 3.50 +68.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0✓ 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar Bar1.6

Bokelj0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR BAR · PPG 2.31

BOKELJ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Mornar Bar (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -40.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +27.1%

Bokelj (A) 22.6%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +170.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar Bar face Bokelj in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar Bar a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bokelj 23%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mornar Bar and 0.7 for Bokelj (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar Bar are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.00 for Bokelj. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +170.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Mornar Bar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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