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Mladost DG vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Mladost DG

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Petrovac

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.2%0-26.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.7%1-112.7%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-17.9%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 37.0% 2.70 -0.6%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 36.0% 40.0% 2.50 -10.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 42.6% 2.35 +9.3%

Over 3.5 25.3% 24.4% 4.10 +2.2%

BTTS 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost DG1.2

Petrovac1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.50

PETROVAC · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Mladost DG (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Petrovac (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost DG face Petrovac in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost DG a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Petrovac 36%, so Mladost DG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mladost DG and 1.3 for Petrovac (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost DG are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.19 for Petrovac. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Mladost DG vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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