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Bokelj vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Bokelj

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Jezero

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.4%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Draw 24.1% 34.5% 2.90 -30.1%

Away win 21.3% 26.3% 3.80 -19.1%

Over 2.5 49.5% — — —

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.4%

H 55% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bokelj1.7

Jezero1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOKELJ · PPG 0.93

JEZERO · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Bokelj (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -30.1%

Jezero (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bokelj face Jezero in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bokelj a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Jezero 21%, so Bokelj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bokelj and 1.0 for Jezero (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bokelj are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.93 for Jezero. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Bokelj vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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