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Decic vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Decic

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jezero

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.1%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Draw 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Away win 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Over 2.5 45.9% 42.6% 2.35 +7.9%

Over 3.5 19.3% 23.3% 4.30 -10.2%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Decic1.3

Jezero1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DECIC · PPG 1.75

JEZERO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Decic (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Jezero (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Decic face Jezero in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Decic a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Jezero 26%, so Decic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Decic and 1.0 for Jezero (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Decic are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.06 for Jezero. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Decic vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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