Today / Shturmi vs Bolnisi

Shturmi vs Bolnisi Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Shturmi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Bolnisi

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-111.4%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% — — —

Draw 33.2% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 9.9% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shturmi1.1

Bolnisi0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHTURMI · PPG 2.00

BOLNISI · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=42.1%

Win probability 1X2

Shturmi (H) 42.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bolnisi (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shturmi face Bolnisi on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shturmi a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Bolnisi 25%, so Shturmi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shturmi and 0.6 for Bolnisi (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shturmi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Bolnisi. This match finished 0-2.

Shturmi vs Bolnisi Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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