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Brondby IF vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Brondby IF

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.3%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.9% 2.95 +6.5%

Draw 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Away win 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

Over 2.5 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Over 3.5 26.1% 38.5% 2.60 -19.3%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brondby IF1.2

AGF Aarhus1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRONDBY IF · PPG 1.47

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Brondby IF (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +6.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

AGF Aarhus (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brondby IF face AGF Aarhus in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brondby IF a 36% chance, the draw 28% and AGF Aarhus 36%, so AGF Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Brondby IF and 1.4 for AGF Aarhus (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brondby IF are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.00 for AGF Aarhus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Brondby IF vs AGF Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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