Today / Neftci vs Shamakhi

Neftci vs Shamakhi Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Neftci

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Shamakhi

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-110.0%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-112.8%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-18.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 15.5% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftci1.3

Shamakhi0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCI · PPG 1.40

SHAMAKHI · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Neftci (H) 46.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shamakhi (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftci face Shamakhi on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftci a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Shamakhi 25%, so Neftci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Neftci and 0.8 for Shamakhi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftci are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.29 for Shamakhi. This match finished 3-0.

Neftci vs Shamakhi Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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