Today / Vardar vs Sileks

Vardar vs Sileks Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Vardar

PPG 2.53 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sileks

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.4%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vardar1.9

Sileks1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VARDAR · PPG 2.53

SILEKS · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Vardar (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sileks (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vardar face Sileks on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vardar a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Sileks 23%, so Vardar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vardar and 1.0 for Sileks (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vardar are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.64 for Sileks. This match finished 1-2.

Vardar vs Sileks Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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