Today / Dortmund B vs FC Koln B

Dortmund B vs FC Koln B Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Dortmund B

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Koln B

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.8%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.8%1-17.0%1-25.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.2%3-25.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.0%4+-25.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 55.7% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1✓ 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dortmund B2.5

FC Koln B1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.81

FC KOLN B · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Dortmund B (H) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Koln B (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dortmund B face FC Koln B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dortmund B a 50% chance, the draw 24% and FC Koln B 26%, so Dortmund B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Dortmund B and 1.5 for FC Koln B (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dortmund B are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.13 for FC Koln B. This match finished 1-1.

Dortmund B vs FC Koln B Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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