Today / Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht
Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht Prediction
Sunday, May 10, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 49% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%
Form & verdict
AJAX AMSTERDAM · PPG 1.94
FC UTRECHT · PPG 1.06
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=49.3%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Ajax Amsterdam face FC Utrecht on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 49% chance, the draw 26% and FC Utrecht 25%, so Ajax Amsterdam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.2 for FC Utrecht (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajax Amsterdam are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.06 for FC Utrecht. This match finished 1-2.