Today / Heimstetten vs Erlbach

Heimstetten vs Erlbach Prediction

Bayern Süd - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Heimstetten

PPG 1.77 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Erlbach

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.5%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.2%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 57.3% — — —

Over 3.5 34.9% — — —

BTTS 56.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.4%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heimstetten1.9

Erlbach1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIMSTETTEN · PPG 1.77

ERLBACH · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Heimstetten (H) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Erlbach (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heimstetten face Erlbach on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heimstetten a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Erlbach 22%, so Heimstetten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Heimstetten and 1.1 for Erlbach (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heimstetten are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.42 for Erlbach. This match finished 3-2.

Heimstetten vs Erlbach Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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